This one is off my radar screen, cos Credit Suisse today has warned:


The Indonesian’s downstream players will now enjoy even more substantial margins from this new tax structure because the export tax for refined or value-added products – e.g. refined olein (7% export tax versus 12.5% previously) and refined palm kernel olein (5.0% tax versus previous 12.5%) – have been cut.


The Malaysian downstream players cannot compete with their Indonesian counterparts, and will likely be worse hit with the new Indonesian export tax structure. Both IOI and Mewah’s profitability will be eroded by price undercutting from their Indonesian peers.

Maintain UNDERPERFORM on IOI and Mewah.

A year ago Mewah had its IPO at $1.10. Ok lah, at that time, markets were still bullish. The Mewah owners sold in the nick of time. Today, the stock is trading at just 47 cents. The damn euro crisis pulled it down but so did Mewah's own lousy earnings disappointments.

ACcording to Kim Eng report, Mewah's positioning is in the midstream portion which subjects its margins to pricing pressure both upstream and downstream. Wah liao, u get squeezed left, right and centre.

The market currently has no “Buys”, three “Holds” and six “Sells” on the stock. Are analysts so insightful as to be able to say that you can forget about this stock?

Engine still cold... Mewah’s 3QFY11 performance continued to be weak, and I think the strong insider buying was more for the long haul -- a recovery in profitability that will take place in 2012, rather than in 3Q or 4Q.

In 3Q, net income was US$6.5mn down 69% y-y.  The 3Q numbers were only marginally up sequentially (compared to 2Q’s US$6mn), suggesting that there is no recovery in the
operating environment yet.

Mewah traded between 49.5 and 52 cents yesterday -- closing at 52 cents. It's a healthy correction. Today..... can go up?

Mewah has fallen sharply from a few months ago when it was above $1. So even now at 53.5 cents, it is still deep in the hole for those who bought at above $1.00

Top volume by 930 am today ... 15 million shares ... now trading at 52.5  cents ....+5.5 cents, 11.8%.... and the company said it is not aware of any news? LOL

This Mewah, up 4 cents ----> 46.5 cents.

Huge volume ..... 47.8 million shares traded today. Mewah bosses panicked and turned pro-active to tell SGX:

Mewah International Inc. (the “Company”) has noticed a substantial increase in the trading
volume of its shares today.

The Company confirms that it is not aware of any information not previously announced
concerning it, subsidiaries or associated companies or any other possible explanation which
might explain the trading.

Buying by MEWAH, YING LI insiders: How will 3Q results turn out?

1. I don't understand how CPO prices affect Mewah which is not a plantation owner. It buys CPO and refines it into different consumer products.

2. All eyes will be on Mewah's upcoming 3Q results. Considering the low 2Q profit, the 3Q can't be worse, so there may be some positive upside to the stock

Mewah stock fell sharply after 2Q profit was horrible at just US$6 m. `1Q was US$17 m.

6 + 17 = 23 million at half-time, which was ony 22% of analysts' full-year forecast.

Mewah got hit by downtrend in CPO prices and JP Morgan says the worst may not be over – we downgrade to Neutral.

From the charts, CPO prices in 3Q are even lower than in 2Q. JP Morgan downgraded the stock to Neutral, with a reduced SOTP PT of S$0.60, which implies 13x/10x FY11E/FY12E P/E.

top vol today. +6 cents >>>> 45 cents.

Bottom may be near but the catalyst for rebound is not visible... Suggest avoid

Looks sad. Daiwa also cut TP > to 48.8 cents.

Credit Suisse this morning > Our view is that palm oil prices will continue to be weak, suggesting that Mewah’s business environment will remain challenging. Mewah management indicated that there are no signs of margins improving at this point.

Hence, we are cutting our estimates of Mewah’s FY11, FY12 and FY13 net profits by 50%, 31% and 36%, respectively. We are downgrading the stock from an Outperform to an UNDERPERFORM, due to the lack of earnings visibility and management guidance. The target price has been cut to S$0.51 from S$1.19 per share.

DJ Mewah Started At Outperform; Target S$1.19 By Credit Suisse 30 Jun, 2011 09:19

credit suisse boh zhun leh.
I will consider buying at 70 cents.
Now 79.5 cents

The target prices are very different. Nomura maintains Buy but slashes TP to $1.16 from $1.34.

DBS Vickers downgrades counter to Hold from buy and slashes TP to $0.90 from $1.23.

Lucky I have not touched Mewah. The correction continues, don't know why so bad, despite Subst. Shareholder buying. At 83 cents now, getting more tempting....

Analyst seems to like it:

DYNA-MAC, HU AN CABLE, Singapore Stocks, MEWAH : What analysts now say....