UOB Kay Hian target is $1.52.

We believe Noble’s stock will be supported by the continued earnings recovery and strengthening balance sheet. Noble received US$355m in 3Q12 and expects to receive another US$360m by Jan 13 as a result of the Gloucester-Yancoal deal.

With lower net gearing (about 0.9x vs >1x prior 2012) and a stronger balance sheet, Noble is in
good position to capitalise on acquisition opportunities. Noble recently announced its participation in a consortium which had bid for mining and materials company Arrium, although the bid was rejected by the target.

JP Morgan Singapore Strategy --- 17 Sept 12.

This QE move occurs at a time when Beta is the cheapest in years (relative valuation high beta vs. low beta…).

As a result the moves this time could be even more exaggerated. In our view, the best Beta Plays (high beta + high upside to JPM TP) are NOBL (1.75x Beta, 16% upside to TP); SMM (1.45 Beta, 15% upside), IFAR (1.37 Beta, 22% upside).

Noble +4 cents in early morning trade, touched $1.32, after US announced QE3.
Nomura had a good call on Noble much earlier.

See Nomura has 'buy' on commodity stocks, AmFraser on YANGZIJIANG

Just sharing my friend See Hoe's views:

Noble ($1.25): My impression on Noble after CEO's interview with Bloomberg:

(1) Not many understand Noble's business, not even the interviewer;

(2) while Noble is in agri business they are under-represented in US, by new CEO's admission the 3 big grains and perhaps cotton ( which they were hit);

(3) for the agri business, it seems that they are pretty concentrated in sugar (which is in Brazil ) and this product is pretty notorious in price behaviour if the past is of any guide;

(4) their main money earner is Energy, 60-70% of rev from there, which means agri and metals and mining are relatively small;

(5) monies receivable from Yancoal deal will be used to "strengthen" balance sheet, in another words pretty heavily geared and also the cost of investment in the 13% stake (Yancoal) there is kept at a pretty high number;

(6) when asked to comment on growth strategy, CEO's aimed to grow all 3 platforms;

(7) no plan of share buyback or higher reward (div) for shareholders....overall, I still can't figure out what exactly is the strength of Noble in this commodity business....

Noble will target US agriculture assets to tap China demand.

Tuesday, 21 August 2012


Noble Group, Asia’s biggest listed commodity supplier, will target agricultural assets in the US as it seeks to meet demand from China and sees potential for deals across its units.

“It’s hard to be the supplier and partner of choice for China in the grain space, and especially in the corn space, without having significant origination assets in the US,” CEO Yusuf Alireza said today in interview with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up” programme. “Over the medium term, that’s an investment we’re looking to make.”

Noble announced at least US$2 billion ($2.5 billion) of deals in the past three years as it built its sugar operations in Brazil and energy assets in the US and Australia. The Hong Kong-based company last month said it was time to build the agriculture unit after shelving plans to sell shares in the business.

“We’re seeing a consolidation process in the agriculture sector and that’s going to arise very significant opportunities,” Alireza said today. Noble is considering different options including acquisitions and potential partnership with US companies, he said.

Noble’s second-quarter profit rose 39% to US$194.8 million as it posted record sales in its energy and metals units, the company said Aug 13. The agriculture unit, Noble’s second-biggest by revenue, accounted for 17% of sales in the six months ended June 30, according to Bloomberg calculations. Energy is its biggest business, comprising nearly 70% of its sales.

Corn Importer

“China is going to be the largest importer of corn over the next few years and we want to be in the position to help supply that,” Alireza said. The Asian nation was the world’s sixth-largest buyer of corn in 2011-12, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The US was the top corn producer, according to the USDA.

There have been 293 announced agriculture deals in the past year, with a combined value US$13.4 billion, including Glencore International Plc’s bid for grain handler Viterra Inc. for C$6.1 billion ($7.8 billion).

Noble will receive US$800 million from asset sales in the next five months and will look at “interesting asset opportunities,” Alireza said.

“The environment is going to be a tough environment for the next 12 to 24 months,” he said. “One of things we’re making sure of is our balance sheet is strong and we’re in the position to build businesses in down markets and we see opportunities across all three of our platforms.”

Citigroup's target price is S$1.68. Now the stock is $1.275.

Citigroup report on 13 Aug 2012:

"The worst of Noble’s negative earnings revisions cycle, which had started in Nov 2011, should now be over post 2Q12 results – and this has marked stock-price bottoms historically.

While there has been poor interest in the stock in 1H12, Noble showing good execution for another quarter will likely help generate greater interest in the stock given global financial
crisis (GFC)-like valuations on the stock currently.

Noble remains our key pick in the trading companies segment."

Mild profit taking. Should be uptrend
Big houses target the price at 1.40-1.80. See TARGET PRICES (SG)

Wowee! Today, Noble rocks!
Closed at $1.25

DBS Vickers said on 8 Aug 2012:


Noble’s share price has fallen by 54% since January 2011 and reported three consecutive quarters of y-o-y decline in earnings starting from 3Q11. We see Noble’s 2H12 operating performance recovering y-o-y; and thus expect a re-rating soon. We believe investors should
accumulate ahead of an earnings and share price rebound.

I think the uptrend is sustainable. Now $1.15. Wish me (more) luck!

It once was a stock that could go nowhere but up .
Now struggling to stay afloat at above $1.10.  I just got  in. Wish me luck.

Noble ($1.10) is enjoying a recovery after being oversold. Noble looks the most attractive valuation-wise, as it is now trading at 10x CY12F P/E and more importantly, at 1.1x CY12F P/B. The book value should be the absolute floor, in our view.

Nomura has 'buy' on Nomura at $1.50

Noble is doing fine this morning +1.5 c to $1.08.

I think Noble will report an earnings recovery in 2Q. It will be supported by contributions from its new sugar mills in Brazil.

I have doubts about Olam's 2q.  Let's see hor?

Tuesday, 10 July 2012 12:18

Citigroup upgraded palm oil firm Wilmar International to ’buy’ from ’neutral’, citing cheap valuations but cut its target price to $4.80 from $5.30 to reflect lower 2012 earnings.

“While there may be one more choppy quarter to go in this cycle, the worst of the negative revisions cycle should be over by the second quarter,” it said in a report.

Wilmar’s earnings are expected to show some recovery in the second half, and its oilseeds processing margins should also improve, Citi said.

At 12:09 p.m., shares of Wilmar were down 0.8%t at $3.58, and have lost 28.4%t since the start of the year, versus the Straits Times Index’s 11%t gain.

Olam’s shares rose 1.4%t to $1.86, but have fallen 12.7%t this year.

The broker also cut its target price for Olam International to $2.75 from $3.10, citing growing competition in the sector and lower return on equity expectations due to a longer gestation phase for its assets.

Noble Group remains Citi’s top pick among Singapore trading companies, and it has a ’buy’ rating and target price of $1.68 on the commodity company.

HSBC has just upgraded Noble ($1.34 yesterday) to neutral from Underweight.

While earnings risks from extreme volatility remain and an announcement of a new CEO is yet to be made, we believe the current PE of 10.7x FY12e earnings adequately reflects these risks. It is at a 31% discount to its 3-year PE mean and 23% below the Singapore market. We raise our TP from SGD1.41 to SGD1.51 to reflect higher peer multiples in our equal-weighted DCF (WACC 10.8%, 1% terminal) and peer PE valuation model. With 17.5% potential return upgrade to N(V) from UW.

In a share buyback yesterday, Noble whacked 8.5 million shares at $1.197 a share. The market is .... not impressed. Now trading lower at around 1.17. What's a good safe entry point?